# MAT540/MAT 540 Midterm (All correct) 40 Questions - 87857

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Question 1 1. Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters. Answer True False Question 2 2. An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736. Answer True False Question 3 3. A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval. Answer True False Question 4 4. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches. Answer True false 5. Question 5 Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables. Answer True False Question 6 Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model. Answer True False Question 7 Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns. Answer True false Question 8 Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process. Answer True false Question 9 Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot? Answer 5.8 minutes 6.4 minutes 9.2 minutes 3.5 minutes Question 10 __________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value. Answer Standard deviation Range The z-score (the standard score) All of the above Question 11 The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision. Answer expected value expected opportunity loss expected value of perfect information none of the above Question 12 Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine Answer the coefficient of variation data sets random number ranges all of the above Question 13 Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20. What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns? Answer .10 .25 .35 .71 Question 14 Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers. Answer physical / physical physical / mathematical mathematical / physical. mathematical / mathematical Question 15 Consider the following frequency of demand: If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be Answer 1 2 3 4 _________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior. Answer Qualitative methods Regression Time series Quantitative methods Question 17 Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with ? = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7. Answer 273 277 267.8 286.2 Question 18 Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors? Answer .01 0.10 0.50 0.90 Question 19 __________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand. Answer Forecast mistake Forecast error MAD Forecast accuracy Question 20 In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand. Answer -1 0 1 -1 or 1 Question 21 Consider the following demand and forecast If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4? Answer 21 22 23 None of the above Question 22 __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand Cumulative error MAD MAPD Average error Question 23 Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable dependent, dependent independent, dependent dependent, independent independent, independent Question 24 Consider the following graph of sales Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data? Answer Trend only Trend plus seasonal Cyclical only None of the above Question 25 A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal Answer Question 26 A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal. Answer Question 27 online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry. The probability of winning at least \$1,000.00 is ________. Answer Question 28 A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal Answer Question 29 The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = \$50,000). If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire? Answer Question 30 An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below. Economic Condition Poor Average Good Excellent Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4) A 50 75 20 30 B 80 15 40 50 C -100 300 -50 10 D 25 25 25 25 If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff? Answer Question 31 Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40, 86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand. Answer Question 32 Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point. Answer Question 33 This is the data from the last 4 weeks: Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10. Answer Question 34 The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product. Use exponential smoothing with ? = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August. Answer Question 35 Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008. Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal. Answer Question 36 The following sales data are available for 2003-2008. Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5. answer Question 37 Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average. Answer Question 38 Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal. Answer Question 39 Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data. Answer Question 40 The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 : Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal. Answer
Solution Description

Question 1

1. Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Answer

True

False

Question 2

2. An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.

Answer

True

False

Question 3

3. A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.
Answer

True

False

Question 4

4. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

Answer

True

false

### 5. Question 5

Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.

Answer

True

False

Question 6

Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.

Answer

True

False

Question 7

Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.
Answer

True

false

Question 8

Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

Answer

True

false

Question 9

Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

Answer

5.8 minutes

6.4 minutes

9.2 minutes

3.5 minutes

Question 10

__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.

Answ

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